Gov. Tina Kotek and Sen. Christine Drazan appear to be nearly tied in Oregon's governor's race ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

Polls show Gov. Tina Kotek and Sen. Christine Drazan, R-Canby, separated by a point or two, with results within the margin of error. Clackamas County is a bellwether in statewide races, including for Lake Oswego-area voters.

An OPB poll of 915 likely voters, conducted Sept. 17-27 by DHM Research, found Drazan at 47% and Kotek at 46% when respondents were pressed on their preference. The margin of error was 3.24%. A subsequent Oregonian/OregonLive poll of 549 likely voters, conducted Sept. 24 through Oct. 1, flipped the order: Kotek at 46%, Drazan at 44%, with a margin of error of 4.2%.

Both candidates are pushing beyond their traditional bases. Drazan has been campaigning in person across the heavily Democratic Portland metro area, pitching tax and regulation cuts and advocating against needle exchanges near schools in Multnomah County, the Lake Oswego Review reported. Those appearances have drawn pushback. At a September meeting at a Southeast Portland church, one voter accused Drazan of misrepresenting her life story about politicians failing the timber industry in her Klamath Falls hometown.

"Is it easy? Absolutely not. Is it comfortable to go into those settings as a Republican? Absolutely not," Knute Buehler, a Drazan ally who lost the 2018 governor's race and has since left the Republican Party, told the Lake Oswego Review. "But it's absolutely essential to do."

Kotek faces her own headwinds. She is trying to hold business-friendly suburban voters while motivating a fractured progressive base in Portland. The Lake Oswego Review reported that many of her appearances have centered on interviews with sympathetic social media influencers rather than public campaign events.

The governor named housing, homelessness and behavioral health as her top priorities before her first term. Oregon has struggled to show progress. The most recent federal count found more people lacked homes in 2025 than in 2023. An estimated 9,700 home permits have been pulled so far in 2026, well short of Kotek's goal of 36,000 new homes per year, the Lake Oswego Review reported.

Kotek has spent much of the campaign trying to link Drazan to the Trump administration. The OPB poll found the governor's favorability rating at 38% among likely voters, only slightly above President Donald Trump's 37%. Drazan's favorability stood at 45% in the same OPB survey.

Pollster John Horvick of DHM Research told OPB the key question is whether Kotek can hold moderate Democrats in the Portland metro area. The OPB poll showed Kotek drawing 54% of tri-county voters, down from the roughly 61% she won there in 2022. Drazan had 40%.

The 2026 race is a rematch. In 2022, Kotek won with 47% to Drazan's 43.5% in a three-way contest that included unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson. No well-funded third candidate is running this cycle. Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith has polled at about 3%.

National forecasters Sabato's Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report have rated the race "lean Democrat," a downgrade from "likely Democrat," according to the Statesman Journal. Oregon has not elected a Republican governor since Vic Atiyeh in 1982.

One factor working against Drazan: money. She has raised $11.1 million since January 2025, about $2.5 million less than Kotek, according to OPB. After a competitive Republican primary, Drazan had less than $1 million on hand compared to more than $8 million in Kotek's war chest.

County election officials began mailing ballots to Oregon's 3.1 million voters on Oct. 14. Because of U.S. Postal Service (USPS) policy changes that route all mail through a central Portland facility, election officials are urging voters to use official ballot drop boxes. Voters who choose to mail their ballots should do so by Tuesday, Oct. 27, according to the Oregon Capital Chronicle. Ballots must be returned or postmarked by 8 p.m. Nov. 3.