Trump's job approval in the Lake Oswego and Wilsonville area sits at 25.9%, according to a geographic polling breakdown by Oregon Capital Chronicle columnist Randy Stapilus, published Thursday, Sept. 3, in the West Linn Tidings.

The figure lands well below Oregon's already-low statewide average of 32.8% and the national average of 38.2%. It arrives two months before the Tuesday, Nov. 3 general election, when Lake Oswego voters will fill four City Council seats and Clackamas County residents across the region will decide local races.

Stapilus drew on data from the Strength in Numbers polling project led by G. Elliott Morris. The project uses a method called multilevel regression and poststratification, or MRP. It is built on more than 12,000 pooled interviews from May 2025 to the present, last updated Aug. 23. Results are mapped onto 35 Census Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs) across Oregon, each containing roughly 100,000 adults.

The numbers vary sharply within Clackamas County. Northwest Clackamas County, including Oregon City, shows 32.9% approval. The Milwaukie and Happy Valley area registers 31.3%. Southeastern Clackamas County, the most rural slice, comes in at 43.6%, the highest in the county but still below 50%.

That 43.6% figure matches the share of the Clackamas County vote Trump received in the November 2024 presidential election, when he lost the county to Kamala Harris, who took 53.4%, according to the Register-Guard.

Only three of Oregon's 35 PUMAs show Trump approval above 50%, all in rural eastern and southern Oregon. Statewide, Oregon voters have rejected Trump in three consecutive elections: 2016 (39.1%), 2020 (40.4%) and 2024 (41%).

"They do seem to represent, both in red and blue areas, across the board decline in support for the president," Stapilus wrote. He added that if the trend affects votes for other Republicans, "it could have a big impact on Oregon elections in another couple of months."

Locally, five candidates are competing for four Lake Oswego City Council seats on the ballot: Bryan Guiney, Patrick Walsh, Heather Ramsey, Neil Tunmore and Suzanne Miles. Three seats carry four-year terms. A fourth, left vacant by Councilor Rapf's resignation in April, carries a two-year term. As we reported Sept. 2, seven candidates are also running for Oregon City mayor and commission seats.

The Clackamas County elections office lists Oct. 13 as the voter registration deadline. Ballots will be mailed starting Oct. 14.